Risk remains high as post-monsoon season unfolds
Key Statistics (Jan–Present)
- 4 deaths confirmed from dengue infection (note: final fatality count may vary).
- 5,874 confirmed infections across 75 districts as of latest reports.
- Though these figures are lower than recent peak years, experts warn that the dengue risk is far from over.
“The risk of a dengue surge is not yet over, as over 12,000 people were infected last October,” said Dr. Gokarna Dahal, chief of the Vector Control Section, Epidemiology and Disease Control Division. “We urge everyone to take necessary precautions to avoid infections.”
Dengue Trends Over the Years in Nepal
To put 2025 data in context:
| Year | Deaths | Reported Infections | Districts Affected | Notes / Observations |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 88 | > 51,243 | 77 | Highest spread – all districts affected |
| 2024 | 15 | 41,865 | 76 | Outbreak somewhat smaller than 2023 |
| 2025 | 4 (so far) | 5,874 (so far) | 75 (so far) | Ongoing season; more expected |
- In 2022, Nepal faced its worst outbreak: ~53,951 cases and 62 deaths.
- Dengue’s geographic reach is expanding – cases have been recorded in mountain districts that previously were less affected.
- Experts caution: reported cases likely understate reality, since ~80–90% of dengue infections are asymptomatic or mild and thus go unreported.
Why 2025 Figures Appear Lower – and Why Danger Still Lingers
Possible Factors for Lower Reported Cases
- Improved awareness and preventive campaigns launched since 2022 (e.g. “Search and Destroy” drives).
- Mono-serotype circulation (if only one dengue virus type is dominant) could reduce severity and spread.
- Unusual rainfall patterns, such as long dry spells or continuous heavy rain, may disrupt mosquito breeding cycles.
- Behavioral changes – people who were infected before may now be more cautious.
- Underreporting and testing constraints – many mild cases do not seek care or testing.
“Perceived severity … those who were infected in the past might have taken precaution to avoid infection again also could have contributed positively this time,” Dr. Dahal explained. “But still the risk is not yet over and vigilance is needed from all to avoid infections.”
Why the Risk Remains High
- Post-monsoon peak season: The period immediately after the rains is historically when dengue surges.
- Vector expansion: Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes are advancing into hill and mountain areas.
- Healthcare strain: Hospitals in Kathmandu and beyond were overwhelmed during past peaks; insufficient capacity remains a potential weak point.
- Climate change and warming: Warmer temperatures make previously inhospitable altitudes viable for mosquito breeding.
- Lack of specific antiviral treatment: Without a cure, early detection and symptomatic treatment are crucial.
Dengue 101: Transmission, Symptoms & Prevention
What Causes Dengue?
Dengue is caused by the dengue virus (DENV), spread to humans via the bite of infected female Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes.
These same mosquito species can transmit chikungunya, yellow fever, and Zika viruses.
Common Symptoms
- Sudden high fever
- Severe headache
- Pain behind the eyes
- Muscle/joint pains (“break-bone fever”)
- Skin rash
- Mild bleeding (e.g. nosebleed, gum bleeding)
- In severe cases: plasma leakage, hemorrhage, shock
If any of these symptoms develop during or after monsoon season, seeking prompt medical care is essential.
Prevention Measures
- Eliminate mosquito breeding sites:
- Empty and clean water containers weekly
- Cover water storage tanks
- Remove discarded tires, cups, bottles, or objects that collect water
- Use personal protection:
- Use mosquito repellents
- Wear long-sleeved clothes (especially daytime)
- Use window screens or mosquito nets
- Community efforts:
- Local “Search and Destroy” campaigns
- Regular larval surveillance
- Public awareness drives
Expert Insights & Quotes
“Next massive outbreak of dengue virus could occur in mountain districts, and health facilities in those areas are not prepared to handle a spike in cases,” said Dr. Sher Bahadur Pun referencing vector expansion trends.
“Early detection and access to proper medical care can save lives,” notes WHO – there is no specific cure for dengue, but timely supportive treatment reduces fatality. Dengue – Global situation
Recommendations for Policymakers & Health Agencies
- Scale up active surveillance especially in hill and mountain districts newly at risk.
- Mobilize resources proactively – hospital beds, diagnostic kits, awareness materials.
- Strengthen lab capacity for dengue diagnosis (PCR, serotyping) to detect emerging serotypes early.
- Sustain and expand “Search & Destroy” campaigns at local ward and community levels.
- Engage communities & schools – behavior change is critical for prevention.
- Forecast & early warning systems using climate and rainfall data to predict outbreak risk.
- Cross-sector coordination – water management, waste disposal, urban planning all matter.
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